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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."